Guest: Jeff Lyons

Credit union predictions take center stage as Mark Ritter hosts Jeff Lyons on Credit Union Conversations to review their 2025 forecasts. The MBFS leaders analyze their interest rate forecasts, NCUA board changes, and tariff-negotiation predictions with a candid self-assessment. Throughout this engaging review, they explore Federal Reserve rate cuts, consumer lending trends, commercial lending stability, and the challenges facing credit unions in the auto loan market as vehicle prices surpass $50,000. They examine the accuracy of housing market forecasts and the outcomes of budget deal negotiations, while acknowledging mixed results in their prognostication.

IN THIS EPISODE:

  • 00:00 Mark Ritter and Jeff Lyons review their year-end credit union predictions for 2025 and discuss their accuracy
  • 00:38 NCUA board changes discussion covering the firing of Democratic board members and predictions about Supreme Court cases impacting regulatory authority
  • 01:33 Interest rate forecasts review, revealing they missed by 25 basis points and tariff negotiations analysis examining how tariffs became a negotiating tool
  • 07:07 Auto loan market and consumer lending trends, highlighting the average cost of a vehicle and the lending environment affecting credit union business
  • 09:06 Discussion of credit card debt to be determined in February and March, and some football talk: Penn State and Rutgers

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

  • Tariff negotiations proved to be primarily a negotiating tool rather than a permanent policy, with initial concerns about widespread economic impact diminishing by year-end as countries eagerly negotiated with the U.S., validating the prediction that tariff discussions would fade from headlines.
  • Budget deal negotiations successfully extended and codified existing tax rate extensions rather than allowing rates to sunset, demonstrating how political necessity drives compromise even in divided government scenarios. However, healthcare insurance rates remain unresolved heading into the new year.
  • Housing market forecast accuracy was mixed as hot markets experienced price corrections while other areas remained stable.

RESOURCE LINKS:

Mark Ritter – LinkedIn
Jeff Lyons – LinkedIn

Mark Ritter is the CEO of MBFS and an expert in credit unions and business lending. His primary role at MBFS is overseeing the strategy of helping credit unions assist members with business needs and consulting with credit unions on planning the delivery of services to their membership.