Guest: Jeffrey Lyons

Credit union lending faces pivotal changes in 2026 as interest rates, inflation, and regulatory shifts reshape the landscape. In this episode of Credit Union Conversations, host Mark Ritter and MBFS COO Jeff Lyons make bold predictions about fed rate movements, treasury rates, and commercial lending growth. They discuss how rising delinquency rates may affect the industry and explore the NCUA’s anticipated regulatory priorities, including oversight of AI and automation. From mortgage rates to commercial real estate refinancing opportunities, this Quick Hits episode delivers actionable insights for credit union leaders navigating an uncertain economic environment in the year ahead.

IN THIS EPISODE:

  • 00:00 2026 predictions episode discussing credit union industry forecasts and Fed rate and interest rates predictions, with expectations of rates dropping to 3-3.25%
  • 01:42 Treasury rates and mortgage rates outlook, analyzing the impact on credit union lending and the housing market
  • 03:10 Inflation rate forecast at 2.5% with discussion of tariffs and unemployment rate effects on economic stability
  • 04:25 Commercial lending growth predictions and commercial real estate refinancing opportunities amid rising delinquency trends
  • 06:29 Discussion of the NCUA board, the rising delinquency numbers, and the abuse of AI
  • 10:15 Let’s talk football

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

  • Federal Reserve leadership changes will drive fed rate policy toward 3% by year-end, creating refinancing opportunities for loans originated in 2024 at higher rates
  • Rising delinquency rates will trigger stricter NCUA oversight on loan loss reserves and accounting practices, while AI and automation regulation emerges as a new compliance focus area
  • Commercial real estate distress will create a “greater fool” refinancing market where credit unions can acquire loans at significant discounts after original lenders absorb losses

RESOURCE LINKS:

Mark Ritter – LinkedIn
Jeff Lyons – LinkedIn

Mark Ritter is the CEO of MBFS and an expert in credit unions and business lending. His primary role at MBFS is overseeing the strategy of helping credit unions assist members with business needs and consulting with credit unions on planning the delivery of services to their membership.